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International Aluminuim Institute Develops 1.5 Degree Decarbonization Scenario

November 10, 2021
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As world leaders meet in Glasgow for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, governments, companies, and industries are weighing in on how they can contribute to limiting the Earth’s rising temperatures. With targets laid out for the coming decades, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) has developed a 1.5-degree decarbonization scenario with hopes of driving a greater reduction of emissions.

Utilizing comprehensive data gathered over decades, the IAI modeled this scenario after the International Energy Agency’s Net-Zero by 2050 scenario, which aims to balance the amount of greenhouse gas produced with the amount removed from the atmosphere by the year 2050.

The IAI has also used its data to develop two further scenarios: the ‘Beyond 2 Degrees Scenario’ (B2DS) and the ‘Business As Usual’ scenario (BAU). While the former, though less ambitious than the 1.5-degree scenario, also complies with the Paris Agreement, the latter aims to show what would happen should no significant changes be made to emissions.

“The 1.5 dataset is not a replacement of the B2DS; rather, it is a different option for organisations to consider in the drive to make the change needed to reduce emissions,” says Marlen Bertram, IAI’s Director, Scenarios & Forecasts in an IAI press release.

“It is clear from our analysis that emissions reduction trajectories for individual companies will depend on location, available options and position in the value chain. While the outlook is promising, further technology development and investment is needed if a 1.5 Degree limit will be met.”

The aluminium industry has been investing in projects and technologies worldwide, as well as forging strategic relations to help in meeting the environmental goals of 2050.

“There is no single solution and it is reassuring to see that technology is advancing […], and that governments, aluminium producers and the wider industry are forging powerful relationships that will truly make a difference,” says Pernelle Nunez, IAI’s Director of Sustainability and Deputy Secretary General.

So far at COP26, which kicked off on 31 October and will run until 12 November, world leaders have pledged to cut methane and end deforestation by 2030, but there is general consensus amongst all involved that it will take more than that to halt the Earth’s rising temperatures.

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